Trend Spotting at SAE Convergence 2012

Guest post from automotive journalist Doug Newcomb

One of the Technical Sessions at the semi-annual SAE Convergence in Detroit on October 16 and 17 is titled Mega Trends and Their Effect on Automotive Electronics. While you,ll have to wait to find out what the participating executives, engineers, and analysts will reveal in the session concerning the rapidly evolving car technology space, here are three areas that are bound to be hot topics at the show.

Driver Distraction
This issue is at the forefront of everyone,s minds ,automakers, suppliers, safety advocates, government officials, and consumers , as cars become increasingly connected. In order to help drivers keep their eyes on the road and hands on the wheel while still accessing the features they want, car companies and suppliers like QNX are developing cutting-edge technologies ranging from intuitive and configurable touchscreen displays to more accurate voice-activation systems that make control easier and less distracting.

Automakers are also being proactive in anticipating distractions: Ford is developing technology that assesses a driver,s workload so that some features can be deactivated in certain situations, and BMW,s pioneering work in,pupilometry, helps determine how drivers visually react when receiving information behind the wheel.



Ford's driver workload estimator (source Ford)

Standards
As more automakers integrate portable devices into the dash, drivers are increasingly frustrated by the fragmentation that,s occurring with first-generation systems. Features that are available for one smartphone platform may not be available for another, for example, and incompatibility issues are common. A push for an industry-wide standard has resulted in the Car Connectivity Consortium (CCC), of which QNX is a member. With MirrorLink, CCC,s industry-wide standard, portable device integration would be more straightforward and seamless for consumers. Getting all parties onboard will take significant effort though, since automakers have traditionally developed proprietary systems. But MirrorLink has substantial support, and the HomeLink system that,s allowed integration of garage-door openers into vehicles for years shows that such standards can be achieved.

Autonomous Cars
Two years ago, self-driving cars would have seemed like a distant sci-fi dream. But since the last SAE Convergence in 2010, Google has logged more than a quarter of a million miles with its fleet of self-driving Toyota Prius and Lexus RX450h vehicles. And this year the company has been instrumental in pushing through legislation that,s made self-driving cars legal in Nevada and California.

Audi is another pioneer in the space, developing an autonomous TT that drove solo up Colorado,s Pikes Peak. BWM has also debuted self-driving technology, and Cadillac recently revealed that its semi-autonomous Super Cruise lane-keeping technology will be available by the middle of the decade. Plus, Google,s announcement of its intention at the SAE World Congress in April to work directly with automakers and suppliers on self-driving technology will undoubtedly help accelerate this game-changing trend.

These are three topics are sure to be heavily discussed , and debated, at SAE Convergence 2012. Stop by the QNX booth during the show to see what the company is doing in these and other areas , or to share what trends you,ve spotted.

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More about Doug
A widely respected reporter and editor with nearly three decades of experience in automotive journalism, Doug Newcomb currently writes for WIRED Autopia and for his own car technology portal, dougnewcomb.com. In 2008, he joined Edmunds.com as a senior editor, where he created the site,s Car Technology section. Prior to Edmunds, he worked as an editor for a variety of automotive publications, including Car Audio and Electronics, Car Stereo Review, and Road&Track Road Gear; he also contributed to many others, including Popular Mechanics, MSN Autos, Corvette Quarterly, and SEMA News. In 2008, he published his first book, Car Audio for Dummies (Wiley).

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Telematics Detroit 2013: The recap

Justin Moon

The Telematics Detroit conference always provides a great opportunity to take the pulse of the automotive connectivity market and understand what key players in the industry are doing � and are planning to do in the next couple of years.

Prior to the show, I had the opportunity to participate in an executive roundtable session hosted by Ernst and Young. The focus was the future of mobile integration and how it will change the market as we know it. The roundtable brought together views from the entire ecosystem, including OEMs, tier one suppliers, software and service providers, dealerships, and, ultimately, the end consumer. It was a great session with a lot of interaction.

Telematics Detroit, Day 1

The Bentley attracted lots of traffic

Okay, let�s go through the event checklist:

• QNX technology concept car based on a Bentley Continental and outfitted with our latest instrument cluster and infotainment concepts. Check.
   
• QNX reference vehicle based on a Jeep Wrangler, rocking a new Qt-based HMI on the QNX CAR Platform for Infotainment. Check.
   
• How about a functional over-the-air software update demo from our colleagues at Blackberry to blow people away? OK, got that, too.
   
• And let�s not forget a demo showcasing the latest in fast boot technology and Android app integration for the QNX CAR Platform. Check, and ready to go.

Inside the Jeep: a new Qt-based HMI

Now we�re set for the show. Day 1 opened with a keynote address on �Winning the Telematics Race�, presented by Thilo Koslowski of Gartner; it set the stage what for turned out to be a great show. Our booth was busy pretty much the entire day � but look at the list above� of course, it was busy! :-)

In addition to great booth traffic, I had the opportunity to participate on a panel on autonomous vehicles and the challenges they present � the discussion was very engaging and it did in fact �drive� traffic to our booth for further discussion. Meanwhile, my colleague Andrew Poliak presented a keynote on HMI trends. To my mind, his talk clearly demonstrated that we are thought leaders in this industry.

The evening brought the annual Telematics and Tonics mixer, co-hosted by QNX and several of its partners: AT&T, NVIDIA, Pandora, Tweddle, and Elektrobit. It was a huge success with well over 300 attendees � standing room only, all night. There were great discussions with great people until the wee hours of the night� really wee hours.

Telematics Detroit, Day 2
Day 2 was busy, busy, busy. Did I mention it was busy? We provided demos galore to OEMs, tier ones, partners � the works. Andy Gryc sat on a panel discussing the ultimate intuitive user interface and knocked it out of the park, as he always does.

The booth was busy until the show closed. We then we put the cars to bed in their shipping truck and headed off to the airport, tired but extremely happy nonetheless.

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#QNXLive Twitter Sessions Return!

Ask us your questions about self-driving cars and the secrets of the QNX Garage

Paul Leroux

We�re back for more of your questions. Back in December, we held our first #QNXLive Twitter sessions leading up to CES 2013; next week, we�re revving up for Telematics Detroit (June 5-6) with not one, but two #QNXLive sessions with experts from the QNX auto team.

Autonomous cars continue to captivate the popular imagination and are quickly becoming a reality. On Tuesday, May 28 at 4pm ET, Justin Moon, global technical evangelist,will give a preview of his Telematics Detroit panel, �The Autonomous Car: The Road to Driverless Driving� in his first #QNXLive session. Justin will share his thoughts on the latest developments in autonomous and assisted driving, how the industry defines �autonomous�, how your car is already autonomous in certain respects, and how self-driving cars will change your driving experience.

On Thursday, May 30 at 1pm ET, Alex James, concept development team software engineer, will take you Behind the scenes at the QNX Garage in his #QNXLive session. Have you ever wondered what a day looks like in the QNX garage for the concept design team? What does the team enjoy most about working in the garage? Alex will give you a behind-the-scenes look at the birthplace of the QNX technology concept car based on a Bentley Continental GT and the reference vehicle based on a Jeep Wrangler Sahara � both will be at Telematics Detroit.

You can submit your questions now or on the day of the Twitter sessions by tweeting @QNX_Auto with the hashtag #QNXLive. As usual, we�ll be sure to call you out if you asked a question that we selected.

Be sure to follow @QNX_Auto for next week�s live Twitter sessions � and the latest from Telematics Detroit. I�m looking forward to being your host for #QNXLive.

In the meantime, check out our recent posts on autonomous cars and the following videos:

Meet Justin Moon, product manager turned concept designer (Justin is nothing if not versatile: he's since taken on the role of global technical evangelist.)

Meet the QNX concept team: Alex James, software engineer

QNX technology concept car - Bentley Continental

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Cisco study: people want a safer, more personalized driving experience

And they're willing to give up some of their privacy to get it.

Paul Leroux

Call me old-fashioned, but my hackles go up every time a web site or business asks me for personal information. My reaction is at once emotional and rational. Emotional because I'm a private person by nature; sharing details about myself simply goes against the grain. Rational because I know that people want this information more for their own benefit than for mine.

Does that mean I never share personal information? Of course not. Even if someone wants it primarily for their benefit, I may still enjoy some benefit in return. That said, I weigh the pro's and con's carefully. And I ask questions. For instance, who will have access to the information? And what will they do with it?

In effect, personal information becomes a form of tender � something I barter in exchange for a perceived benefit. And it seems I'm not alone.

Recently, Cisco published the results of a study on what car drivers would be willing to give up in exchange for a variety of benefits. For instance, 60% would provide DNA samples or other biometric information in return for personalized security or car security. And a whopping 74% would let their driving habits be monitored in return for lower insurance or service maintenance costs. Cisco sums it up in this infographic:


In autonomous we trust
The study also found that people are willing to embrace autonomous cars � but the enthusiasm varies significantly by geography. For instance, Canada trails the U.S. by 8 percentage points, but both countries are miles behind India or Brazil.


The study surveyed more than 1,500 consumers across 10 countries. That's only about 150 people per country, so I wouldn't put too much credence into this geographic breakdown. That said, the differences are dramatic enough to suggest that self-driving cars will see faster adoption in some countries than others.

For more on these and other findings, visit the Cisco website.

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The great autonomous car debate

Paul Leroux

When it comes to cars that drive themselves, are you for or against? Either way, you're bound to find fodder for your arguments in Six reasons to love, or loathe, autonomous cars, a recent CNET article co-authored by Wayne Cunningham and Antuan Goodwin.

Wayne is for, Antuan is against, and they both score good points. For instance, Wayne argues that autonomous cars will reduce accidents and help the elderly remain mobile. Antuan, meanwhile, warns of the potential for reduced privacy and the likelihood that driving will become less random � that last point may not sound like a drawback, but I found myself nodding in agreement.

Actually, I found myself agreeing with both writers on several points. Does that make me a fence-sitter or just someone with a balanced perspective? Read the article and tell me what you think.

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Autonomous, not driverless

Paul Leroux

I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to the era of self-driving cars. After all, why spend countless hours negotiating rush-hour traffic when the car could do all the work? Just think of all the things you could do instead: read a novel, Facebook with friends, or even watch Babylon 5 re-runs.

Unlike Babylon 5, this scenario is no longer a page out of science fiction. It�s coming soon, faster than many imagine. That said, the story of the self-driving car still has a few unfinished chapters � chapters in which the human driver still has an important role to play. Yes, that means you.

As I�ve discussed in previous posts, the fully autonomous car is a work in progress. In fact, some of the technologies that will enable cars to drive themselves (adaptive cruise control, forward collision avoidance, etc.) are already in place. Moreover, research suggests that these technologies can, among other things, improve traffic flow and reduce accidents. But does that mean you will soon be able to sit back, close your eyes, and let the car do everything? Not quite.

Evolution, not revolution
If you ask me, Thilo Koslowski of Gartner hit the bull's eye when he said that self-driving cars will go through three evolutionary phases: from automated to autonomous to unmanned. Until we reach the endpoint, we should pay heed to the words of Toyota's Jim Pisz: autonomous does not mean driverless.

If planes can do it�

Some folks hear this and are disappointed. They point to auto-pilot technology in planes and ask why we can�t have driverless cars sooner than later. The argument goes something like this: "It's much harder to fly a plane, yet we have no problem with a computer handling such a complex task. So why not let a computer drive your car?�

If only life were so simple. For one thing, automakers will have to make autonomous cars affordable � doable but not easy. They�ll also have to negotiate a variety of legal hurdles. And in any case, driving and flying have less in common than you might think.

When you drive, you must remain alert on a continuous basis. Lose your attention for a second, and you stand a good chance of hitting something or somebody. The same doesn't always hold true in flight. When a plane is cruising at 30,000 feet along a proscribed flight path, the pilot can avert his or her attention for 5 seconds and incur little chance of hitting anything. In comparison, a driver who becomes distracted for 5 seconds is hell on wheels.

And, of course, auto-pilot doesn�t mean pilot-less. As Ricky Hudi of Audi points out, pilots may rely on autopilot, but they still retain full responsibility for flying the plane. So just because your car is on auto-pilot doesn�t mean you can watch YouTube on your tablet. Bummer, I know.

An alarming solution

Source: Modern Mechanix blog (and yes, that should 
read Frankfurt)

All of which to say, the driver of an autonomous car will have to remain alert most or all of the time � until, of course, autonomous vehicles become better than humans at handling every potential scenario. Now that could happen, but it will take a while.

It seems that someone anticipated this problem in the early 50s when they invented �alarming glasses� � take a gander at the accompanying photo from the August 1951 issue of Modern Mechanix.

Scoff if you will, but a kinder and gentler form of this technology is exactly what autonomous cars need. No, I'm not suggesting that scientists find a better way to glue wires to eyelids. But I am saying that, until cars become fully and safely autonomous, drivers will need to pay attention � after all, it�s tempting to drift off when the car is doing all the work. And, indeed, technologies to keep drivers alert are already being developed.

Pre-warned means prepared
Mind you, it isn�t enough to keep the driver alert; the car may also need to issue �pre-warnings� for when the driver needs to take over. For instance, let�s say driving conditions become too challenging for the car�s autonomous mode to handle � these could heavy rain, a street filled with pedestrians, or an area where lane markers are obscured by snow. In that case, the car can�t wait until it can no longer drive itself before alerting the driver, for the simple reason that the driver may simply take too long to assess the situation. The car will need to provide ample warning ahead of time.

The more, the better
That cars will become autonomous is inevitable. In fact, the more autonomous, the better, as far I'm concerned. Research already suggests that technologies for enabling autonomous driving can, in many cases, do a better job of avoiding accidents and improving traffic flow than human drivers. They also seem to do better at things like parallel parking � a task that has caused more than one student driver to fail a driving test.

But does this all mean that, as a driver, I can stop paying attention? Not in the near future. But someday.

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An (info)graphic look at self-driving cars

If I were in the insurance industry, I'd be following the development of autonomous cars with keen interest. Think about it: all those cars will have to be insured, but they will probably get into fewer accidents (and incur fewer insurance settlements) than conventional vehicles. That could be good for business as well as for safety.

So why am I bringing this up? Because InsuranceQuotes.com has come up with an infographic on autonomous cars, and it's a doozy. (Trivia dep't: Some believe that the expression "it's a doozy" was coined by the legendary automaker Duesenberg, as part of a campaign to promote its vehicles. Others disagree. I thought you'd want to know.)

Kidding aside, the infographic does a nice job of summarizing the potential benefits of self-driving vehicles, including greater safety, faster traffic flow, reduced fuel wastage, and increased mobility for people with physical handicaps.

Of course, if these benefits are borne out, we will all have to come to terms with the inevitable conclusion: computers do a better job of driving than humans. If you can get comfortable with that, you should survive the year 2040 with a minimum of future shock.



Infographic from Bankrate Insurance�s InsuranceQuotes.com

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Volvo to ship self-driving cars in 2014

Yes, you read that right. According to an article published yesterday in the Wall Street Journal, the Swedish car maker has stated that, within two years, it will launch cars that can drive themselves at speeds of up to 31 miles per hour. It's all part of an ambitious plan to produce "accident free" vehicles by 2020.

I knew that some automakers were planning to roll out their first autonomous vehicles in the relatively near future. It seems that one automaker has decided to eliminate the "relatively".

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Who will foot the legal bill for your self-driving car?

If a self-driving car gets in an accident and hurts someone, who is at fault? This isn�t an academic question. Unless automakers get a consistent answer as to whom will be held accountable, and when, the era of autonomous vehicles may be off to a rocky start.

Ideally, automakers would like to see regulations set at the federal level: one set of rules for each entire country, rather than different rules for each province, state, county, or region. That may or may not happen. For instance, only a small number of states in the U.S. allow self-driving cars to be tested on their roadways, but already, the laws governing liability vary from state to state. (I assume that, in the European Union, such laws would be consistent from country to country � please comment if I assume incorrectly.)

This inconsistency is but one of the legal roadblocks to a self-driving future, according to a recent article published by Law360.com. For instance, the article also discusses how an automaker may be subject to liability claims if it simply designs a vehicle in a way that allows someone to install driverless technology.

Will all this put a stop to self-driving cars? Don�t count on it. People will inevitably demand cars with autonomous capabilities, if a recent survey is anything to go by. And automakers will get in the game if for no other reason than to stay competitive and attract customers (which, when you think of it, is the raison d��tre of any business).

In fact, automakers may have little choice. According to Law360, some automakers have been subject to lawsuits because they didn�t install electronic stability control in their vehicles, a technology known to save thousands of lives annually. If some self-driving technologies can indeed reduce accidents, as research suggests, then automakers may, in effect, be forced to deploy them. And call me na�ve, but I assume that governments could likewise be held accountable if they implement laws that slow the deployment of accident-reducing technology.

My take? It seems to be in everyone�s interest to make the self-driving car happen.

Read the full Law360 article here. Registration is required, but is fast and painless.

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Look ma, no driver!

Some of us talk about autonomous cars, some of us dream of owning one, and some of us actually get to ride in one. Andy Gryc is one of the latter. Head over to his blog to see a video he took while being chauffeured in a self-driving vehicle developed at the University of Parma � think of it as the ultimate in hands-free systems.

Would this be an awesome way to tour Italy, or what?

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Autonomous cars? Suddenly, I�m not so skeptical

Guest post from Emil Dautovic, European automotive business development manager for QNX Software Systems

As a driving enthusiast, I have always felt a bit skeptical about the notion of autonomous cars. The reason is simple: I actually enjoy driving and don�t want someone else to do it for me, in this case the car itself.

Recently, however, my skepticism has begun to soften. I am fascinated, for example, by the SARTRE road train project, where a lead vehicle takes responsibility for a platoon of semi-autonomous cars. Also, recent research from the U.S. Highway Loss Data Institute suggests that, when it comes to some driving tasks, ADAS systems can already put many human drivers to shame.

Autonomous drive will become especially important when today�s �always on� generation starts to buy cars in earnest. They will, no doubt, want to consume multimedia and interact through social media even while on the road, and automakers will need to accommodate them.

HMIs with more (and less) distraction
What would this mean for car makers? Among other things, the infotainment system in a self-driving car could offer an HMI mode that gives the driver more freedom to pay attention to non-driving activities. When the car subsequently needs a human driver (for instance, it becomes disconnected from a road train), the infotainment system could disable these features and immediately go back to a less distracting user interface.

Also, driver assist systems � such as those for detecting animals and pedestrians � would need to be integrated with the road train system to decide how to react when, say, a rabbit runs in front of the car. For instance, should the car brake and warn other cars of the fact, or would it be safer to simply keep driving? It will be interesting to follow this initiative and see how the technical and business aspects evolve, and how, for example, the owner of the lead vehicle will be paid.

For another interesting example of research into autonomous drive, check out the BRAiVE project led by the VisLab team at the University of Parma. The BRAiVE project uses a variety of sensors, with a focus on low-cost alternatives that could realistically integrated into in production cars.

Bells and whistles
So what kind of impact could all this have on a company providing automotive software platforms?

There will, I believe, be an increased demand for a platform that could run all of these applications, enabling the advanced use cases while ensuring that critical functions always have enough processor power. And, of course, the platform will have to be reliable. If this same platform could offer all the bells and whistles available in consumer electronics and demanded by younger drivers, the self-driving future might prove to be a bit closer than we think.

By the way, if you�re unfamiliar with the SARTRE road train project, check out this video:

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More about Emil
Emil Dautovic is an automotive business development manager at QNX Software Systems, where he is responsible for the European automotive market. Prior to joining QNX, he worked as a business area manager for The Astonishing Tribe (TAT), where he built TAT's automotive business from scratch and helped transform the company into an important player in the automotive HMI field with leading automotive OEMs and tier ones. He has also worked at AU-System (later Teleca and Obigo), where he served as a consultant on GSM base station development and as a sales representative serving mobile phone OEMs and ODMs worldwide. Emil holds an M.Sc. in Electronic Engineering from Lunds Tekniska H�gskola.

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Drivers want ADAS, but not so sure about autonomous cars: study

In May, market researcher Penn Schoen Berland canvassed 2,506 American drivers about their driving habits. The findings, presented last week at a Ford press conference, are sobering:

• 76% of respondents admitted to eating or to drinking non-alcoholic drinks while behind the wheel
• 53% admitted to talking on a handheld phone
• 33% admitted to fiddling with their mobile gadgets
• 55% admitted to driving beyond the speed limit
• 37% admitted to driving when too tired

And here�s the kicker: 99% of respondents claimed they were safe drivers.

I know, it's a major disconnect. But here's what I find interesting: most respondents also expressed interest in driver assistance systems. In other words, even self-proclaimed safe drivers tacitly admitted they could use help now and then. For instance:

• 8 out of 10 respondents expressed interest in technologies that would help them stay in their lane
• 9 out of 10 expressed interest in technologies that could detect an impending collision and slow the car down

Respondents also expressed interest in systems that could detect a car in their blind-spot, provide voice-activated phone dialing, or park the car automatically. That said, only 39% said they�d feel comfortable riding an autonomous car.

My take? That number will grow significantly once more people drive cars equipped with adaptive cruise control, automatic parallel park, and other driver-assist systems. The more people become accustomed to such systems, the more they'll accept a car that does most of the driving for them.

For media coverage of this study, visit Forbes, Scientific American, and the Wall Street Journal.

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Autonomous cars by 1976?

By Paul Leroux

When you hear "Firebird," what image comes to mind? Chances are, it looks something like this:



Or this:



But did you know that the Firebird brand dates back to the 1950s? In those days, the Firebird looked like this:



Clearly, this wasn't a production car. Rather, GM designed it to promote a variety of forward-looking technologies, including a rear-view camera, a CRT-based instrument panel, and, yes, autonomous drive.

Speaking of which, here's a video from 1956 that shows how an "electronic control strip" embedded in the road allowed the Firebird II to drive itself. Jump to the :37 mark to catch the action:



My favorite part? The closing comment, "This may well be part of the American scene in 1976." The prediction was on the optimistic side, to say the least. But it does reflect our long-standing fascination with self-driving cars. In fact, it goes beyond that. The Firebird II also embodies a persistent belief that such cars are inherently safer than cars driven by humans.

Here, for example, is an excerpt from the Firebird II brochure, which extols the benefits of putting technology in the driver's seat:

Not only do you relax and enjoy your journey, but you are as safe as modern science can make you. For, while human beings err in judgment, the electronic brain is completely foolproof.

Does that sound familiar? It does to me. A few weeks ago, I wrote about an article published in 1958 that claimed:

Driving will one day be foolproof, and accidents unknown, when science finally installs the Electronic Highway of the Future.

Part of me laughs at the sheer na�vety of these statements. But you know what? They aren't all that far from the truth. I'd like to think I'm better than any "electronic brain" at driving safely, but the evidence is starting to suggest otherwise. According to data gathered by the Highway Loss Data Institute, automatic crash-avoidance systems in cars are, in fact, better than humans at responding to a variety of dangerous situations.

So, in some small way, I'm threatened by these statements. After all, who wants think of themselves as Captain Dunsel? :-)

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Will autonomous cars motivate more teenagers to get behind the wheel?

I know, it seems like an odd question. But allow me to provide some context.

A few months ago, my colleague Andy Gryc predicted that autonomous cars will, in a few years, start rolling off the assembly lines. To support this prediction, he cited several trends, including two demographic factors: 1) baby boomers are getting older and hence losing their ability to drive safely, and 2) young people today are much more interested in connecting than in driving; they prefer to live their lives online.

I must admit, I thought the second factor was anecdotal at best. But boy, was I wrong� I think.

According to a new study published by the journal Traffic Injury Prevention, the number of young drivers is, in fact, falling precipitously. For instance, in 1983, 87.3% of 19-year-olds had a driver�s license. By 2008 that number had fallen to 75.5%, and by 2010 it had tumbled to 69.5%.

Similar drops occurred in other age groups under 40, but the trend is far more pronounced among teenagers and twenty-somethings. Here�s a graph from the article:



So what accounts for the trend? According to the authors, Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle, the decrease in driver licensing is consistent with the increase in Internet usage � an interpretation that falls in line with Andy Gryc�s hypothesis. I, too, believe that the Internet is a factor. But is it the only one?

In July, Jordan Weissmann of The Atlantic wrote a short piece on Sivak and Brandon�s article, and if the comments are anything to go by, the trend is the result of many contributing factors, not just one. Commenters noted that, since the 1980s, gas prices have gone up; teenagers face more restrictions when applying for licenses; parents have become more protective; and cars, with all their electronics, can no longer be maintained by an teenager with a wrench and a smattering of mechanical skills. And let�s not forget the elephant in the room: the lack of jobs available to young people.

So, to return to our original question, will autonomous cars spur more young people to get behind the wheel? If young people are losing interest in driving because they�d rather stay connected, possibly yes. But if serious economic factors are at play, probably not.

What do you think?

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Will autonomous car tech save your life?

"But if we can prevent crashes altogether, that's even better." This statement comes at the end of a new video from the Highway Loss Data Institute, which explores how some crash avoidance systems are, in fact, reducing crashes.

Before we watch the video � and it really is worth watching � allow me to digress. The notion of achieving 100% crash prevention is, to my mind, a non-starter. It's like saying that kids can play sports without ever getting hurt, or that you can live with other people without ever catching a cold. Yes, you should do what you can to keep such outcomes to an absolute minimum, but life doesn't come with 100% guarantees, aside from those that apply to death and taxes. In fact, the only way to ensure a system is 100% safe is to ensure it does absolutely nothing.

Fortunately, the crash-avoidance systems in question are doing something, and in some cases, the something is good. The findings reported by the HLDI are fascinating, since they suggest that systems which take action on behalf of the driver are sometimes more effective than systems which provide warnings only. In other words, fewer crashes occur when the car, rather than the driver, takes control in a dangerous situation. Feeling like Captain Dunsel yet? :-)

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The future of the self-driving car ain't what it used to be

Some people think self-driving cars are cool, others think they're very cool, and still others can barely contain themselves. Here, for instance, is an excerpt from an article I stumbled on a few days ago:

"Some day in the future when you drive onto a superhighway, you�ll reach over to your dashboard and push the button marked �Electronic Drive.� Selecting your lane, you�ll settle back to enjoy the ride as your car adjusts itself to the prescribed speed. You may prefer to read or carry on a conversation with your passengers�or even to catch up on your office work. It makes no difference for the next several hundred miles as far as the driving is concerned."

Bring it on, I say. Especially since the technical challenges are far from insurmountable, or so the author claims. I quote again from the same article, which reviewed a study of driver assistance systems conducted on a public highway in Nebraska:

The demonstration made two major points. First: the various elements of the system can be used immediately in conjunction with roadside and intersection lights to increase driving safety under present conditions... Second: the system as a whole can be developed without major technical complications into a fully automatic highway traffic control system. [emphasis mine]

Told you: This will be easy!

But here's the thing. This article dates from 1958, when it was published in a journal called Electronic Age. Here's a facsimile of the article's opening page, courtesy of the folks at the Modern Mechanix blog:



As you can see, the caption writer is even more optimistic, claiming that "electronic highways" (and, by extension, electronic drive) will eliminate accidents and make driving "foolproof".

Well, if the self-driving car is so easy, why haven't we seen it yet?

The short answer: we have. But it's a work in progress.

Giving up control
It all started 80 years ago, when GM introduced the first automatic transmissions. For the first time, the car started to make some driving decisions � namely, when to shift gears � on behalf of the driver.

Fast-forward to the early 1970s, when the first computerized anti-lock brakes came off the assembly line. These, too, do some "thinking" on behalf of the driver. When you slam your foot on the brake pedal of a car with anti-lock brakes, you're not really in control. You're just asking the braking system to make a series of decisions for you.

Fast-forward again to 2003, when Toyota introduced automatic parallel parking. With this technology, the car becomes even more autonomous, to the point of steering itself. More to the point, it does a better job at parallel parking than many humans � including yours truly.

Kicking out the jams
Other driver assistance systems also come to mind, including adaptive cruise control and collision avoidance technology. When you add them all up, it becomes obvious that the self-driving car is coming along nicely, thank you. Moreover, it's moving downmarket.

For instance, Ford recently announced Traffic Jam Assist, a combination of active cruise control and lane-position technology already available on the Focus, Escape, and Fusion. Using cameras and radar sensors, the new system will help the car stay in its lane and keep pace with other vehicles.

The Ford system signals an important trend. In a recent article, Doug Newcomb quoted Ian Riches of Strategy Analytics as saying. �In 2009, over 70 percent of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) technology was fitted to premium vehicles. By 2019, we�re forecasting only around 40 percent of ADAS will be on these premium vehicles..."

It don't come easy
Don't get me wrong. I realize that building a fully (or mostly) autonomous car is an immense challenge. Making it affordable is an even bigger challenge. But clearly, things are moving along. And, as my colleague Andy Gryc has pointed out, the sheer difficulty of achieving autonomy is precisely what will motivate some extremely intelligent people to pony up to the challenge.

Personally, I don't know what fascinates me more: the engineering behind these advances or that people are becoming accustomed to letting go � of their steering wheels, of their gas pedals, of being in control. It's an interesting socialization process.

Either way, one thing is for sure: the self-driving future really ain't what it used to be. Because, this time, it's real.

Moving pictures
Enough talk. Here's a video of Ford's proposed Traffic Jam Assist system, which can take of steering, braking, and acceleration in stop/start traffic:


 

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Autonomous cars? Surely, you're joking

No, I'm not. And stop calling me Shirley.

Five years ago, I would have called someone nuts if they said cars would soon be driving themselves. But next week, I'm going to say just that. On Monday I'm headed to Detroit for the 2012 SAE World Congress, and the rise of driver-less cars is one of the points I'm going to make as part of a panel on the future of telematics.

Saying that cars could or should drive themselves might get some people up in arms.  Am I advocating taking away the driver's rights? What happened to The Ultimate Driving Experience? What about Fahrvergn�gen?

I enjoy driving as much as anyone. And yes, generally, I want to be in control of my car. But I see the writing on the wall, and it comes from three things:

Elderly boomers
My grandfather told me once a couple years before his death that drivers today were so rude

�they were always giving him the finger. I sympathized, until I took a ride with him. I white-knuckled it the whole way as he drove 40 mph in a 70 zone, straddling two lanes of traffic and getting plenty of hand gestures all the way. He didn't drive for much longer after that, fortunately for him and everyone else on the roadway.

My dad is still a good driver, but slowly and surely, my parents are getting there. What happens when all the boomers lose their ability to drive safely? Especially in North America, where distances are so long and independence is a given?

Gen AO
Otherwise called Generation Always On, this group includes anyone who picks their car based on their phone, rather than the other way around. There's a whole generation of people whose need to connect and socialize is far stronger than their need to drive. I'd argue this narrow generational definition could be extended to almost all of us at one time or another.

How many of us (not asking for hands) have been guilty of glancing at their phone while driving? Okay, now how many of us have seen other drivers drift a little too far out of their lane (looking at their phones, presumably) and then all of a sudden snap back to their lane? Right, me too.

Google
It's not just Google; it's also a bunch of very smart and driven (pun intended) people at lots of universities and high-tech companies. Google has motive: it can generate a lot more ad revenue if people are searching, and people can search a lot more if they're not driving. University researchers also have motive: Driver-less cars pose a very challenging problem that would be prestigious to solve. What's more, Google's proven it can be done�on real roads�with their driverless car. Enough that they convinced Nevada to pass a law allowing autonomous cars, with other states soon to follow.

Add those three things together, and what do you get? Yep�driverless cars, sooner than you might think. If I get to the point where I'm endangering others, I'll willingly let my car drive, rather than give up mobility. And wouldn't we all be a little safer if cars came with a cruise-control-like automatic pilot? Yes, I'm sure we would. This is the one thing that could permanently solve any form of distracted driving: a human not driving. I was never was much for Knight Rider, but KITT? Bring it on.
 

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